Blogs, Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube have played a major role in episodes of contentious political action. These new media tools are often described as instrumental for activists seeking to replace authoritarian regimes and to promote freedom and democracy, and they have been lauded for their democratizing potential. At the same time, there has been little analytical or critical understanding of the actual impact of new media tools on transformational politics, and their import is often misconstrued. This report challenges the conventional wisdom about the effects of new media on contentious politics but goes beyond skepticism to identify how understanding these complex relationships could improve policymaking and conflict zone reporting.

The authors propose using available content and linkage measures to look at the role of new media in contentious politics from five interlocking levels of analysis. New media can change how citizens think or act, mitigate or exacerbate group conflict, facilitate collective action, spur regime backlash, and attract international attention to a conflict zone. The authors note that regimes also use these tools to quash dissent. Evidence from new media surrounding the Iranian election protest in 2009 suggests that traditional media retains its central role.

Key findings include the following:
?Despite widespread discussion of social media's role in revolutions, policymakers and scholars know very little about whether and how new media affect politics. Journalists often rely on anecdotes rather than data or research.
?New tools are emerging that measure link and content sharing across media outlets.
?The impact of new media can be better understood through a framework that considers five levels of analysis: individual transformation, intergroup relations, collective action, regime policies, and external attention.
?Evidence from the protests after the Iranian presidential election in June 2009 suggests the utility of examining the role of new media at each of these five levels.
?Although there is reason to believe the Iranian case exposes the potential benefits of new media, other evidence -- such as the Iranian regime's use of the same social network tools to harass, identify, and imprison protesters -- suggests that, like any media, the Internet is not a "magic bullet." At best, it may be a "rusty bullet." Indeed, it is plausible that traditional media sources were equally if not more important.
?Scholars and policymakers should adopt a more nuanced view of new media's role in democratization and social change, one that recognizes that new media can have both positive and negative effects.

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• Politics & Social SciencesFreedom & Security

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