SHORTLISTED FOR THE ROYAL SOCIETY TRIVEDI SCIENCE BOOK PRIZE 2024

'Fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting' Oliver Burkeman
'A remarkable book about a remarkable theorem' Will Storr
'Witty, lively and best of all, extremely nerdy. I learned a lot and so will you' Tim Harford

Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his theorem was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its implications soon became clear.

Bayes' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and forecasting. 'Superforecasters', a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of rationality, and of the human brain.

Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.

• We started tracking this book on December 7, 2023.
• This book was £12.99 when we started tracking it.
• The price of this book has changed 6 times in the past 765 days.
• The current price of this book is £3.49 last checked 12 hours ago.
• This book is at its lowest price in the past 90 days.
• This lowest price this book has been offered at in the past year is £0.99.
• The lowest price to date was £0.99 last reached on July 8, 2025.
• This book has been £0.99 one time since we started tracking it.
• The highest price to date was £12.99 last reached on January 30, 2025.
• This book has been £12.99 2 times since we started tracking it.

• Publication Date: April 25, 2024
• Text-to-Speech: Disabled
• Lending: Disabled
• Print Length: 291 Pages
• File Size: 114 KB